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Doubts over August rate cut despite inflation holding steady at 2%

UK inflation remained unchanged at 2% in June – but experts from across the sector have warned it may not be enough for the Bank of England to cut rates in August.

This is because services inflation – which includes everything from restaurants to hairdressers and is becoming an increasingly important factor – remains persistent.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show it stayed at 5.7% in June, which means that the cost of living is still rising.

Abrdn adviser chief commercial and strategy officer, Jonny Black, said: “Hitting the 2% target and maintaining it is a notable achievement, but savers and investors shouldn’t assume the fight against inflation is won.

“Continued economic volatility, along with pressures from a competitive jobs market, could cause inflation to rise again later this year.

“The recent fluctuations in prices also underscores the need for vigilance. Without clear signs that inflation is calming down for the long haul, we may find rate-setters rethinking the timeline for cutting interest rates.

“Through the lens of financial planning, taking proactive steps is often more effective than reactive measures.

“Advisers play a key role in guiding clients to build resilient, long-term financial plans that better safeguard against the impact of inflation and unpredictable movements, which is key to capital preservation.”

Chief economist at Forvis Mazars, George Lagarias, said: “On paper, UK inflation stabilising at 2% should be more than enough for the Bank of England to hit the launch button on rate cuts. However, we understand the central bank’s reluctance.

“Headline inflation is less important now than services inflation, which remained at 5.7%, roughly double its long-term average. China continues to deflate global durable goods, but this will probably eventually stop.

“As long as services inflation remains elevated, it will act as a significantly negative factor in the Bank’s rate-cut considerations.”

Global market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Zara Nokes, said: “Despite the progress made on inflation over the past 12 months, there will be a sense of déjà vu at the Bank of England following today’s latest print.

“Headline inflation remained at target in June, but the critical component – services inflation – significantly overshot the Bank’s latest projection, coming in at 5.7% year on year.

“This inflation print, coupled with ongoing resilience in economic activity – as evidenced by the stronger-than-expected 0.4% month on month GDP print in May – is likely stronger than the data the Bank is looking for to start cutting rates.


“At its previous meeting in June, the Bank indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates is ‘finely balanced’.

“Absent a sharp deterioration in the activity data, in our view today’s data should close the door on an August rate cut.”

My Pension Expert policy director Lily Megson said: “The first inflation figures post-election are a promising sign. For retirees and those planning their retirement, stable or target levels of inflation are crucial. But we mustn’t fool ourselves.

“Target inflation isn’t an immediate fix for years of savings-bashing price hikes.

“It’s therefore vital people are provided with the help and support they need to get fully back on track with their finances.”

However, Killik & Co partner and investment manager Rachel Winter said the news was “cause for a country-wide sigh of relief” and “should be evidence enough for the Bank of England to push the button on a rate cut next month”.

Source : moneymarketing  – Date: 17/07/2024 – By: Dan Cooper